“We are the center of the universe,” quipped Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.), whose solid-blue seat in southeastern Pennsylvania could get tougher in redistricting. “I think the midterm could surprise us and be very good for Democrats.”
Every House Democrat in Pennsylvania, even in the toughest districts, held onto their seat alongside Biden’s victory in the state last fall. But their narrow margins in those down-ballot races tell another story: Pennsylvania’s most endangered House Democrats — Reps. Conor Lamb, Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild — each won by less than 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, one of the party’s top GOP targets, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, won by double digits.
The future of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s gavel may now depend on how the party fares in a cycle when neither Biden nor Trump is on the ballot. In other words, did Pennsylvania voters like Biden enough to help the rest of his party, or are Democrats finally having a resurgence in the Rust Belt?
“That is the $20 trillion dollar question,” said Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) said in an interview, noting that Biden only won his state by 1.2 percent.
Casey said he’ll be looking specifically at whether Democrats can sustain the robust turnout that Biden generated in the suburbs, and at whether Republicans build on the inroads that Trump made with rural voters in 2020.
“We gotta work really hard,” Casey added. “We have a really good shot based on the work we’re doing here, and the economy I think is going to be in much better shape.”
Then there’s the threat of redistricting. Pennsylvania is losing a House seat in reapportionment finalized on Monday, and the GOP-controlled state legislature is in charge of the map-drawing process. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf does have veto power, but many members of his party fear that Republicans will find a way to draw maps so unfavorable that they ultimately cost Democrats more than a single seat.
Beyond that one-seat decline due to the new census count, the risk of Democratic losses in Pennsylvania is perhaps greatest in the state’s eastern suburbs. New maps that saddle swing-seat Democrats with more GOP voters from areas such as Berks or Schuylkill counties could make those districts far tougher to hold.
That includes Wild, whose Lehigh Valley district is surrounded to the west by far redder counties, and who’s facing a rematch against a self-funding GOP opponent. That candidate, Lisa Scheller, came within 3.8 points of an upset last year, while Wild won her first race in 2018 by 10 points.
Wild raised $531,000 in the first quarter of this year, the second-highest haul of any member of the Pennsylvania delegation. But Scheller outraised her, in large part because the Republican loaned herself $500,000, according to recent campaign filings.
“I really feel like a huge piece of reelection for me is what I’m doing right now and what I do in Washington,” Wild said in a recent interview in Bethlehem, Pa., where she promoted her efforts to secure relief for small businesses during the pandemic.
The second-term Democrat said her staff wasn’t “thrilled” when she signed up for three committees this Congress, worrying about how she would balance that workload with campaigning duties that accompany a tough district. But, Wild added, “I’m not going to spend my life politicking for reelection.”
Another Democrat along the state’s eastern side could face a similar predicament: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, in the once-reliably red Chester County, won her seat in 2018 after redistricting changes a few years earlier. But changes to the maps in 2022 could make her seat more difficult to hold, too, since her district is bordered by more GOP-leaning counties.
And Democrats like Cartwright and Lamb are even more at risk.